As the region rounds the summer bend, Kinstellar Partner in Serbia Milan Samardzic, Avellum Managing Partner Mykola Stetsenko in Ukraine, and PwC Director and Head of Legal Practice in Georgia Vano Gogelia unpack what moved and why in terms of summer levels of activity, the macro and political levers at play, and what they expect to drive closings into year-end.
Did Summer Slow Down?
Across the region, firms report anything but a typical lull – just different patterns of busyness.
To start, Ukraine saw no summer fade. “This summer is definitely much busier than the previous ones. In fact, August is even busier than June,” Stetsenko says. “There’s been an uptick in activity across all practice areas, but the most encouraging change is that transactional work is finally picking up.”
Meanwhile, in Serbia, the rhythm dipped briefly, but momentum held, according to Samardzic. “We observed a slight moderation in activity during June, which can be attributed to the usual seasonal trends. However, it would be inaccurate to describe this as a typical ‘summer slowdown.’ On the contrary, overall activity remained robust, and our year-to-date performance continues to show a substantial increase compared to the same period last year,” he reports. This sustained growth “underscores the stability and resilience of our practice, even during periods when a softer market pace might ordinarily be anticipated,” he says. “When compared with prior years (2022-2024), the pattern has remained largely consistent; in previous years, we also experienced a mild deceleration in the summer months, but without any significant impact on annual performance. This year, thanks to a well-structured operational approach, ongoing process improvements, and the continued trust of our clients, we have successfully maintained a steady level of engagement, even during periods when the market traditionally slows.”
And, in Georgia, a single headline deal set the tone. According to Gogelia, there has been a bit of a sluggish period, “but [they] are in the middle of a large transaction in the banking sector which has continued throughout the summer and kept [them] quite busy.”
Where Work Moved
Beneath the surface, the mix shifted, with some transactional pauses in certain areas, while strong flows prevailed elsewhere. Ukraine’s mandate stack tilted decisively to deals and projects. “Transactional practices are on the rise in our case, especially M&A and infrastructure,” Stetsenko reports. “International investors are showing more interest, while the local market has remained active. The finance practice is busy, and disputes and tax work are also strong, some driven by ongoing legacy matters, others by new developments.”
According to Samardzic, Serbia saw timing-related pauses, not demand drops. “The most noticeable moderation, albeit modest, was in transactional work, particularly within the M&A and private equity segments,” he says. “This softening was observed over the course of several months but did not materially affect the overall flow of mandates. Importantly, the slowdown was more a matter of timing and market sentiment than a reflection of diminished client demand, as several transactions remain in the pipeline and are expected to progress in the coming period.”
As for Georgia, activity appears to be clustered in two classic engines, with Gogelia saying that there has been visible “M&A activity in the banking sector and some action in the energy sector.”
Key Drivers
Macro uncertainty, political cycles, and policy signals have all been shaping decisions. In Ukraine, reform momentum and global sentiment were pivotal, according to Stetsenko, who points to the “potential ending of the war and also resilience of the Ukrainian economy. It seems that the global M&A activity has revived after the initial ‘cautious’ period of the first months of the Trump presidency.”
As for the domestic political landscape, Stetsenko says that “while it’s not an entirely new political force – the prime minister was formerly the deputy prime minister – the administration appears determined to push forward reforms that were previously stalled. The prior government’s focus was on economic survival, but now the emphasis seems to be on reconstruction and progress, especially along the EU accession path. The government is drafting a plan to accelerate that process, and although the agenda isn’t yet fully clear, its communication with the business community on regulatory improvements has been generally positive.” Additionally, he says that “an attempt to restructure the anti-corruption authority was met with strong resistance from the business community and international donors, ultimately halting the move, but the fact that it happened at all sent the wrong signal. Similarly, the government delayed appointing the head of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine, despite the candidate passing all checks. These mixed signals, declaring a commitment to reforms while dragging out key institutional changes, have been a recurring frustration for business.”
In Serbia, domestic politics weighed on timing and structure. “In our view, the primary factor influencing the market dynamics this summer has been the increasingly complex domestic political environment in Serbia,” Samardzic explains. “Heightened political uncertainty has, in certain cases, prompted clients to take a more cautious approach to major transactional decisions, leading to adjustments in timing and deal structuring. While this has not substantially reduced overall activity, it has introduced additional layers of complexity into negotiations and regulatory processes.”
And, Georgia’s drivers were more transactional and investor-led. “It was generally accidental and not driven by any specific factors,” Gogelia says. “Generally, we see activity from Chinese investors being more frequent in various sectors, such as banking, energy, and construction.”
Autumn Outlook
All eyes now turn to year-end closings, subject to political and macro caveats. From Kyiv, the pipeline looks broad and busy. “M&A will continue to be active through the end of this year, along with tax, disputes, finance, and infrastructure,” Stetsenko says. “Predictability remains a challenge, and everyone is waiting for the war to end, which would be transformative for Ukraine’s economy,” he adds. “Still, the domestic economic engine is functioning. We’re seeing new production capacity, some road construction projects, and clear signs of recovery.”
Over in Belgrade, it is expected that the fourth quarter will go by in a usual sprint, if politics cooperate. “The final quarter of the year has proven to be the most active period, as clients seek to close transactions, complete regulatory processes, and finalize strategic initiatives before year-end,” Samardzic says. “We anticipate a similar trend in 2025, with strong activity expected across transactional, regulatory, and dispute resolution matters. On the other hand, this outlook remains contingent on broader political stability. Should the current domestic political situation escalate into significant instability, it could prompt heightened caution among investors, potentially delaying certain projects or capital commitments.”
Finally, in Tbilisi, Gogelia flags elections as the main near-term variable. “We believe M&A will continue, and we think the energy sector will be more active. Also, we have local elections in October, and it is expected that some slowdown may occur until November.”
This article was originally published in Issue 12.7 of the CEE Legal Matters Magazine. If you would like to receive a hard copy of the magazine, you can subscribe here.
