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NATO Summit Preview – EUR 40 Billion in Military Aid for Ukraine in 2025 and New NATO Command to Coordinate Military Aid and Training for Ukraine are Priority Deliverables

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Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has secured the unanimous support of NATO country ambassadors for €40 billion (approximately US$43 billion) in lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine in 2025. NATO leadership is expected to approve the agreement during the annual NATO Summit, which will take place July 9-11, 2024 in Washington, DC.

The €40 billion in aid for 2025 represents the approximate amount of aid that NATO member states have provided to Ukraine annually since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. While Secretary General Stoltenberg had endeavored to secure a five-year support package for Ukraine that would have maintained current annual aid volumes for half a decade to demonstrate stability amidst political uncertainty within Europe and the US, as approved, the commitment will be subject to annual review.

The open-ended nature of the plan represents a compromise reached to secure the backing of certain NATO member states that have expressed apprehension regarding a multi-year aid commitment without ongoing assessment. Additionally, to ensure transparency and proportionate contributions throughout the alliance, NATO will prepare two reports in the year ahead determining which member states are to be responsible for providing which exact military supplies and equipment to Ukraine.

The vital deterrence function of defense production capacity expansion in Ukraine, and across NATO member states, will be a guiding principle during the Summit.

Although Ukraine will not receive an official invitation to join the alliance, NATO leaders are expected to announce a new formal NATO mission for Ukraine—“NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU)”—intended to transition lead responsibilities from the US to NATO with respect to coordination of military aid and training for Ukraine.

Ukraine is also expected to sign additional bilateral security agreements with NATO members states during the Summit, similar to the 10-year bilateral security agreement signed by the US and Ukraine in June 2024, as well as the security cooperation agreement signed by Poland and Ukraine on July 8, 2024.

The July 2024 convening of the alliance will be Stoltenberg’s last as Secretary General after 10 years in the role. In June 2024, NATO’s North Atlantic Council appointed former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte to succeed Stoltenberg as Secretary General. Rutte will assume his new role as NATO’s leader on October 1, 2024, amidst record defense spending within the alliance with 24 of the 32 NATO member states set to meet or exceed their respective 2% of GDP defense spending commitments this year.

By Christopher W.K. Fetzer, Partner, Dentons

Ukraine Knowledge Partner

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